Stocks across the globe have been on a recent downward slide. China twice devaluated their currency last week, hitting companies like Apple hard with worries their products would no long be affordable to the Chinese consumer. This morning the DOW Industrial Average started with a 1,000 point plunge, and AAPL sank to $94.05 a share at the opening bell, leading the massive fear-based sell off. Then Apple CEO, Tim Cook, did something unheard of for the Cupertino-based company.
Cook emailed CNBC's Jim Cramer stating the following: “Jim, As you know we don't give mid-quarter updates and we rarely comment on moves in Apple stock. But I know your question is on the minds of many investors.”
Vacationing across Australia and Indonesia, a young surfer found himself struggling to figure out how to take decent selfie of himself while on his board. Taking a 35mm camera and strapping it onto his hand – via a rubber band no less – he quickly discovered that quality and practicality was lacking, but the idea merited exploring. Nick Woodman had given birth to GoPro.
Vans to trade shows, and hard work to hustle, GoPro started going viral, finding a market replacing the point and shoot camera. Smartphones, lead by Apple's camera quality, were absorbing the pocket camera market. Canon and Nikon countered, pushing higher-end pro-sumer and HDSLR cameras. GoPro had found a solid and vacant space, going public in June of 2014. Would GoPro strike Wall Street gold as it had the quality selfie video market? On day one, GoPro closed over $31 a share. Fast forward to today and GPRO continues its meteoric climb, now over $62 a share on swelling sales. Where will it end? Perhaps in Cupertino.
You can forget yesterday’s record shattering numbers Apple CEO, Tim Cook, proudly revealed for Apple’s 3rd quarter of 2015. Ignore the fact that iPhone sales grew 35% year-over-year, or that Apple now has over $200 billion in cash for the first time in history. This is all irrelevant. None of this matters. Why? Because analysts guessed that Apple would sell between 50 - 55 million iPhones in the quarter, when in reality Apple only sold a record breaking 47.53 million iPhones. Apple did not achieve the conjured up sales figures the “experts” spewed forth, and therefore the result was Apple’s stock price must be punished. No offense to the political naive who do not understand history, but in the investment world, this makes about as much sense as, say, cutting a nuclear deal with Iran trusting they will do the right thing. The sad reality is, this vapid illogic is how the stock market largely operates each and every day. Companies stocks rise when they beat the expert guesstimates. Stocks prices fall when companies do not meet the expert expectations. It does not matter how the company actually preformed. It is all about the experts guessing game. Reason and logic need not apply.
Financial reports and comments on them are one thing, but getting those little morsels of coded information from Tim Cook or Luca Maestri are quite another. Today at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time, Apple will be holding their Q3 2015 financial conference call with a host of financial analysts and investment researchers. Apple's financial statement, released at roughly 1:10 p.m. Pacific, should be fairly pedestrian. Financial analysts are anticipating 50-55 million iPhones sold, earnings at the higher end of Apple’s revenue guidance of $48 billion, all while keeping a keen eye for any Apple Watch sales information. But beyond the expected is where questions from the likes of Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster or UBS’s Steve Milunovich come forth precious nuggets of Apple’s future.
There are three major areas of commentary I'm looking for during the Q3 call. The first is HomeKit. It was a no-show at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June. The likely reason for the omission was due to the second area of interest, Apple TV. Both topics go hand-in-hand, as it is highly rumored that the next generation Apple TV will be, amongst other things, Apple’s home automation hub, requiring HomeKit specific tools. Cook will be asked about Apple TV. The question is, will he deliver any hints as to what may be coming, or how current Apple TV sales have been since the $30 price drop earlier in the year (now only $69)?
Apple’s stock has been stuck at the $120-130/share range for the past several months. It’s peak was $134.45 back in February. But since that time the stock has been relatively flat when compared to the previous year of continual growth.
If you've ever wondered how Apple stacks up financially in relation to software giant Microsoft, perhaps your perspective should be flipped. It is Microsoft that must be viewed in relation to Apple’s success. During the last quarter Apple amassed an additional $32.7 billion in net income and cash, while Microsoft’s total revenue for the quarter stalled at $21.7 billion, up only 6% YOY. This meager growth barely tracks above inflation, and is not keeping pace with internal cost increases. The downward trend for Microsoft came in their net income, which saw a 5% decline in the face of larger revenues, a seriously dangerous equation. Microsoft blamed the strong US dollar for the fall, but Apple had no need for such excuses during their quarterly report. Apple’s YOY revenues grew 27%, while driving larger gross margins and a 30% rise in net income. The two companies couldn't be on more different paths.
Apple’s fiscal second quarter iPhone sales were simply amazing, but the Cupertino company is showcasing the value in diversity more so than any of its competition. Microsoft is simply a decades old franchise, one-hundred-percent dependent on Windows. Google just showed how unsuccessful it is outside of anything but search. Apple’s model of software coupled with various hardware businesses can withstand blows, and expand in ways that continue to defy the odds — and its detractors — alike.
Microsoft, the once mighty and feared software giant, is only a footnote outside of Windows sales. Office is the monster of business workflow, but without Windows and the forced Office bundles, who would value Word or Powerpoint over other solutions available today? Everything Microsoft had, has, and will have, revolves around Windows nothing more. Bing, Xbox and Windows Phone are all long-term financial nightmares for the Redmond, WA techno-giant.
Tim Cook has lead and experienced a wave of success at Apple. The result? Suddenly everyone wants part of the action. Cook is now being lectured by kooky numb-nuts with money and platforms on how to run Apple. Clearly, these people on the outside, who have done nothing to make Apple successful, know what is better for Apple than those leading it to record setting success.
It has been rumored for years. Mock ups have been made. Analysts have proclaimed launch season after launch season, year after year after year. Yet for all the hype and wondrous prototype possibilities that may – or may not – be hidden deep within Apple’s design labs, a 4K/UHD TV that sports an Apple logo may never be in the cards. Our condolences to Gene Munster.
Whether or not Apple could change the way a television functions and interacts with the user is the wrong question to ask. Apple is more than capable of creating markets from scratch and reinvent nascent technologies into something brand new and better. The right question to ask is whether creating a state-of-the-art TV would be worth it for Apple?