tagged iCab Mobile
Intel CEO, Paul Otellini, reportedly stated at the Barclays Capital investor conference "It is fashionable to write off the PC about every three or four years, and it just doesn't die." On the surface, the comment seems dead wrong. It would appear Intel's CEO should be preparing for early retirement, but Otellini went on to describe what a PC actually is. "The PC you bought 15 years ago looks nothing like the one you have today," he said. Paul went on further to discuss notebook and netbook growth, promoting Intel's Sandy Bridge architecture.
Mr. Otellini discussed tablets and how they interact with laptop designs, and this is when his view of the marketplace veered off course. "I don’t think, at the end of the day, tablets are cannibalizing it. They are not replacements for notebooks. They are a competitor for discretionary income disposition. So you walk into Best Buy and you’ve got $400 burning a hole in your pocket, or in the case of the iPad, $600 burning a hole in your pocket, and you want to buy something cool for Christmas for your wife or kid or something. It’s a competitor."
Microsoft has been the golden child of the tech industry for a long time. And while there is no need to deeply rehash the last 30 years (we've all lived it or read about it ad nauseam), here is a quick recap before covering what's in store for Microsoft this decade:
- 1980's: DOS/PC revolution
- 1990's: Windows and Office revolution
- 2000's: Microsoft has no revolution
- 2010's: Microsoft cannot make up lost ground. The rest of the tech industry moves on.
- Desktop software continues to take a back seat to mobile solutions.
- Microsoft delivers Windows Phone 7, a product that holds no relevance in the marketplace. Win Phone 7 fails. Consider it the Kin III.
- Consumer and business mobile device markets continue to explode. Microsoft cannot keep up with Apple, Google, RIM and HP.
- IE continues to have it's market-share eroded, falling below 50% by 2015 with a sub 5% in mobile share. Silverlight becomes irrelevant in the face of HTML 5 and mobile apps.
- Microsoft is relegated to server and .net database solutions.
- Microsoft becomes the new IBM. A silent company working in the background of corporations and backbones, nothing more.
The year 2011 is looming over Redmond and tablets are poised for explosive sales. Whether you buy into Piper Jaffray's 40 million 2011 tablet shipment figure (23.2 million million of them iPads), or Gartner's rosy looking 54.4 million figure, the point is well made - 2011 is the year of the tablet and Microsoft is nowhere to be found. Unlike iPods and iPhones, tablets will make a profound impact on Microsoft's Windows stronghold.